The Somali Research and Development Institute (SORDI), in collaboration with the University of Geneva and with funding support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, has officially launched Phase Two of the ESTIMATE Study — short for Estimating Coverage in Inaccessible Areas using Multiple Methods — in Afmadow district, Somalia.
What is the ESTIMATE Study?
The ESTIMATE Study is an innovative public health research initiative designed to tackle one of the most persistent challenges in immunization systems: how to accurately measure vaccination coverage in conflict-affected, insecure, and hard-to-reach areas where traditional household surveys are simply not feasible.
Following the successful completion of Phase One in Galkayo South, Phase Two now focuses on testing alternative survey methods that can generate reliable immunization coverage estimates in inaccessible areas.
Three Methods Being Evaluated
In this phase, the research team is evaluating three distinct survey approaches:
1. Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) A community-based recruitment method where initial “seed” participants refer other eligible participants through their social networks, enabling recruitment across multiple referral waves. Interviews are conducted by phone to reach populations that are difficult to access physically.
2. Network Scale-Up Method (NSUM) An indirect estimation approach that uses participants’ knowledge of people within their social networks to estimate vaccination coverage across the wider population. Intercept surveys are being conducted in Kismayo — at hospitals, bus stations, and marketplaces — among people who travel from Afmadow.
3. Embedded Enumeration (EE) A community-led household survey approach where trained local enumerators conduct interviews within defined catchment areas. This method draws on local knowledge and community trust, making it particularly suitable for unstable or unmapped environments.
Why This Research Matters
The findings from the ESTIMATE Study will directly contribute to improving how governments, humanitarian agencies, and global health partners monitor vaccination coverage in insecure settings. Most importantly, it will help ensure that children living in hard-to-reach areas are not left behind because of geography, insecurity, or access barriers.
SORDI remains committed to generating evidence that drives real change for the most vulnerable communities in Somalia and beyond.